The effect of NATO expansion to the Persian Gulf on deterrence of the Islamic Republic of Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Responsible author: PhD in International Relations, Faculty of Administrative Affairs and Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan Iran

2 PhD in Political Science, Faculty of Political Science, Reza Shahr Branch, Azad University, Isfahan, Iran

3 Associate Faculty Member, Faculty of International Studies, Imam Hossein University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

The Persian Gulf has seen two types of security institutions in recent decades: trans-regional security institutions that have infiltrated the area, such as the SEATO Pact, and intra-regional security institutions. The plan to expand NATO activities in the region dates back to the mid-1980s, and Trump called for more serious activity in the Persian Gulf in 2020. Given the complex situation in the region in terms of the density of crises among countries and the Arab countries' acceptance of this organization, it is possible to form a new security framework in the region that can change the equation of deterrence among Arab countries against Iran. Especially since Biden also wants this strategy. This is especially important for Iran, for which most of the region's collective and security arrangements have been continued as deeming it a threat. What will be the consequences of the development of NATO activities in the Persian Gulf for Iran and how will it affect its deterrence strategy? It seems that the presence of this security organization will increase the context of increasing confrontation within the region and increase movements against Iran. Because with the presence of NATO, Iran will face a cycle of trans-regional deterrence that intensifies the balance of threat.

Keywords

Smiley face

References

  1. فهرست منابع

    الف) فارسی

    کتاب:

    1. لیتل، ریچارد (1389). تحول در نظریه‌های موازنه قوا، ترجمه غلامعلی چگنی‌زاده، چاپ اول، تهران، ابرار معاصر
    2. مشیرزاده، حمیرا (1389). تحول در نظریه‌های روابط بین‌الملل، چاپ اول، تهران، سمت.

    مقالات:

    1. جاودانی‌مقدم، مهدی (1399). "بررسی حضور ناتو در خلیج فارس در پرتو سیاست تمرکززدایی آمریکا از خاورمیانه"، فصلنامه پژوهش‌های روابط بین‌الملل، دوره دهم، شماره 3، صص 39-64.
    2. مصلی‌نژاد، عباس (1396). " امنیت خاورمیانه و استراتژی کلان دونالد ترامپ"، فصلنامه بین‌المللی ژئوپلیتیک، سال سیزدهم شماره ۴، صص 52-20.
    3. فرجی‌راد، عبدالرضا (1399). "چشم‌انداز حضور ناتو در خلیج فارس"، شورای راهبردی روابط خارجی، لینک دسترسی:

    https://www.scfr.ir/en/politics/131234/prospect-of-nato-presence-in-persian-gulf/

    ب) لاتین

    Books:

    1. Arafat, Alaa Al-Din (2020). Regional and International Powers in the Gulf Security, Palgrave Macmillan
    2. Christensen, Carsten Sander (2020). NATO and the Future of European and Asian Security, Caucasus International University, Georgia
    3. Jervis, Robert (2008), Cooperation under the Security Dilemma, in: Richard K. Betts, Conflict after the Cold War, Argument on Causes of War and Peace, New York: Columbia University, third edition
    4. Johnson, Rob (2019). Military Strategy in the 21st Century: The Challenge for NATO, Oxford Press.
    5. Ruhle, Michael (2020). Future NATO: Adapting to New Realities, Routledge
    6. Snyder, jack (2020). Defending the Fringe NATO, the Mediterranean, and the Persian Gulf, Routledge
    7. Walt, Stephen (1987). The Origins of Alliance, Cornell University Press.
    8. Walt, Stephen (2005). Taming American Power, Council on Foreign Relations

    Article:

    1. Adebahr, Cornelius (2020). “Collective Security in the Persian Gulf: Preparing for an Opening”, https://carnegieeurope.eu/2021/07/20/collective-security-in-persian-gulf-preparing-for-opening-pub-84959
    2. Bininachvili, Albert (2020). “Re-energizing NATO cooperation with the gulf region. What role for energy?” in Energy Security Forum, https://enseccoe.org/data/public/uploads/2017/02/esf_2014_july.pdf
    3. Cordesman, Anthony (2020). “Iran and the Changing Military Balance in The Gulf - Net Assessment Indicators”
    4. Davari, Arash (2020). “U.S.-Iran Relations under Maximum Pressure: A Narrow Path to Negotiations”, https://www.brandeis.edu/crown/publications/middle-east-briefs/pdfs/101-200/meb137.pdf
    5. Deni, John (2020). “Why expanding NATO to the Middle East is a terrible idea”, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/01/10/why-expanding-nato-middle-east-is-terrible-idea/
    6. Hurley, Thomas (2013). “NATO: Revisiting American Commitment”, https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA589520.pdf
    7. Ingel, David (2015). “Prospect for Closer Israeli-Nato Cooperation”, Naval Postgraduate School.
    8. Kardas, Saban (2020). “Turkey on NATO’s Role in the MENA: Perspectives from a “Central Country” https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Kardas_Brief.pdf
    9. Katzman, Kenneth (2021). “U.S.-Iran Conflict and Implications for U.S. Policy”, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/R45795.pdf
    10. Khatibzadeh, Saeed (2020). “HOPE for a New Regional Security Architecture: Toward a Hormuz Community” in Fostering A New Security Architecture in the Middle East, Foundation for European Progressive Studies
    11. Loup, Jean (2012). “NATO's dealing with a different Gulf now”, https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2012/12/06/nato-s-dealing-with-a-different-gulf-now/index.html
    12. Malley, Robert (2021). “10 Conflicts to Watch in 2021” https://www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-conflicts-watch-2021
    13. Perteghella, Annalisa (2019). “Iran Looking East: An Alternative to the Eu?” https://www.ispionline.it/en/pubblicazione/iran-looking-east-alternative-eu-24470
    14. Rakov, Daniel (2021). “What will the Middle East look like in 2030? An Israeli Perspective”, https://www.mei.edu/publications/what-will-middle-east-look-2030-israeli-perspective
    15. Reyaz, Mohammad (2019). “Crisis in the Persian Gulf Region”, Asia in Global Affairs, https://www.asiainglobalaffairs.in/reflections/crisis-in-the-persian-gulf-region/
    16. Robinson, Linda (2021). “Reimaging US Strategy in the Middle East”, Rand Cooperation, https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA958-1/RAND_RBA958-1.pdf
    17. Rydell, M (2020). “Syria: Iran’s and Saudi Arabia’s newplayground?” http://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/8909212/file/8910952.pdf
    18. Saddiki, Said (2015). “Arab Public Opinion and NATO after the International Military Operations in Libya”, Turkish Journal of international Relations, Vol.3. No.12. Pp. 27-52
    19. Sachs, Natan (2020). “Israel in the Middle East: The next two decades”, https://www.brookings.edu/research/israel-in-the-middle-east-the-next-two-decades/
    20. Shanahan, Rodger (2018). “The gulf states and Iran: Robust Competitors or interested Bystanders?” https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/109453/LPe_gulfst.pdf
    21. Sokolsky, Richard (2017). “Persian Gulf Security: Improving Allied Military Contributions”, https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/www/external/congress/terrorism/phase2/persiangulf.pdf
    22. Vatanka, Alex (2019). “Iran’s use of Shia Militant Proxies”, https://www.mei.edu/sites/default/files/publications/Vatanka_PolicyPaper.pdf
    23. Young, Terry and Peggy Crawford (2018). “Hands across the Atlantic?”
    24. International Business & Economics Research Journal, Vol. 2, No. 12. Pp. 41-50.
    25. Zamirirad, Azadeh (2020). “Forced to Go East? Iran’s Foreign Policy Outlook and the Role of Russia, China and India”, German Institute for international and security Affairs, Sites:
    26. Plaja, Ruben (2018). “Projecting Stability: an agenda for action”, https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2018/03/13/projecting-stability-an-agenda-for-action/index.html
    27. Baldor, Lolita (2019). “US to ask NATO to pay more to protect Saudi Arabia from Iran”, https://apnews.com/47f554cf90564ac5869579f1fa37633a
    28. Bishara, Marwan (2019). “Saudi Arabia and Iran after the summits of discontent: Was Riyadh able to unite Arab and Muslim leaders against Tehran?” https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/saudi-arabia-iran-summits-discontent-190604101807753.html
    29. Boot, Max (2019). “NATO is on life support — and Trump’s the one who put it there”, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/12/04/nato-is-life-support-trumps-one-who-put-it-there/
    30. Farouk, Yasamine (2019). “How Saudi Arabia Could Make a Bold Strategic Move on Iran”, https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/06/28/how-saudi-arabia-could-make-bold-strategic-move-on-iran-pub-79399
    31. Haddick, Robert (2012). “The Persian Gulf Needs Its Own NATO”, https://foreignpolicy.com/2012/05/18/the-persian-gulf-needs-its-own-nato/
    32. Madawi AlRasheed (2019). “Saudi Arabia’s Regional Foreign Policy is Fracturing the Gulf”, http://www.sharqforum.org/2017/09/14/saudi-arabias-regional-foreign-policy-is-fracturing-the-gulf/
    33. NATO Parlimentary Assembely (2020). “NATO Allies urged to develop inclusive approach to Iran”, https://www.nato-pa.int/news/nato-allies-urged-develop-inclusive-approach-iran
    34. Oprysko, Caitlin (2020). “'NATO plus ME': Trump proposes NATO expansion into Middle East”, https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/09/trump-nato-expansion-proposal-096772
    35. Samaan, Jean (2020). “The Limitations of a NATO-Middle East Military Cooperation”, https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/81740
    36. Sament, Daniel (2020). “To deter Iran, the gulf states need stronger Navies”, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/to-deter-iran-the-gulf-states-need-stronger-navies/
    37. Stolton, Samuel (2020). “Is NATO about to become 'more involved' in the Middle East?” https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/nato-involved-middle-east-200113212641341.html
    38. NATO (2018). “NATO begins the final phase of its move to a new home”, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_152982.htm
    39. NATO (2018). “Military organisation and structures”, https://www.nato.int/cps/ic/ natohq/topics_49608.htm
    40. NATO (2021). “Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2014-2021)”, https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2021/6/pdf/210611-pr-2021-094-en.pdf
    41. indexmundi.com-iran/ Profile

     

     

     

Defensive Researches and Management
Volume 20, Issue 92 - Serial Number 92
Summer Quarterly
December 2021
Pages 103-128

Files

History

  • Receive Date: 06 August 2021
  • Revise Date: 09 September 2021
  • Accept Date: 06 December 2021

Share

How to cite

Statistics