تأثیر گسترش ناتو به خلیج فارس بر بازدارندگی جمهوری اسلامی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 نویسنده مسئول: دکتری روابط بین الملل، دانشکده امور اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه‌ اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران

2 دکتری علوم سیاسی، دانشکده علوم سیاسی، واحد شهر رضا، دانشگاه آزاد، اصفهان، ایران

3 عضو هیئت علمی وابسته، دانشکده مطالعات بین الملل، دانشگاه جامع امام حسین(ع)، تهران، ایران

چکیده

خلیج فارس در چند دهه اخیر دو نوع نهادهای امنیتی را تجربه کرده است: نهادهای امنیتی فرامنطقه‌ای که به این ناحیه نفوذ کرده‌اند، مثل پیمان سنتو و نهادهای امنیتی درون منطقه‌ای. طرح توسعه فعالیت‌های ناتو در این منطقه به اواسط دهه 1980 برمی‌گردد و ترامپ خواستار فعالیت جدی‌تر این سازمان در منطقه خلیج فارس شده بود. با توجه به وضعیت پیچیده منطقه از نظر تراکم بحران‌ها بین کشورها و استقبال کشورهای عربی منطقه از این سازمان، امکان شکل‌گیری چارچوب امنیتی جدیدی در منطقه وجود دارد که می‌تواند معادله باز‌دارندگی بین کشورهای عربی در مقابل ایران را تغییر دهد؛ به‌ویژه اینکه بایدن نیز مایل به ادامه داشتن این راهبرد است. این مسئله به‌ویژه برای ایران از این نظر مهم است که اغلب ترتیبات جمعی و امنیتی منطقه حول تهدید تلقی کردن این کشور تداوم یافته است. حال با حضور ناتو در این منطقه، به‌نظر می‌رسد موازنه تهدید علیه ایران و به نفع‌کشورهای عرب خلیج فارس تغییر کند؛ چرا که ایران با حضور ناتو با یک چرخه بازدارندگی فرامنطقه‌ای مواجه خواهد شد که کفه ترازوی موازنه تهدید را به سود کشورهای عرب خلیج فارس سنگین‌تر می‌کند. این مقاله با روش توصیفی- تحلیلی به بررسی این موضوع می‌پردازد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The effect of NATO expansion to the Persian Gulf on deterrence of the Islamic Republic of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • MohammadJavad SoltaniGishini 1
  • Asghar Bayani 2
  • Mohammad Pour khosh Saadat 3
1 Responsible author: PhD in International Relations, Faculty of Administrative Affairs and Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan Iran
2 PhD in Political Science, Faculty of Political Science, Reza Shahr Branch, Azad University, Isfahan, Iran
3 Associate Faculty Member, Faculty of International Studies, Imam Hossein University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The Persian Gulf has seen two types of security institutions in recent decades: trans-regional security institutions that have infiltrated the area, such as the SEATO Pact, and intra-regional security institutions. The plan to expand NATO activities in the region dates back to the mid-1980s, and Trump called for more serious activity in the Persian Gulf in 2020. Given the complex situation in the region in terms of the density of crises among countries and the Arab countries' acceptance of this organization, it is possible to form a new security framework in the region that can change the equation of deterrence among Arab countries against Iran. Especially since Biden also wants this strategy. This is especially important for Iran, for which most of the region's collective and security arrangements have been continued as deeming it a threat. What will be the consequences of the development of NATO activities in the Persian Gulf for Iran and how will it affect its deterrence strategy? It seems that the presence of this security organization will increase the context of increasing confrontation within the region and increase movements against Iran. Because with the presence of NATO, Iran will face a cycle of trans-regional deterrence that intensifies the balance of threat.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • NATO
  • Military Balance
  • Deterrence
  • Persian Gulf
  • Iran

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مراجع

  1. فهرست منابع

    الف) فارسی

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مدیریت و پژوهش‌های دفاعی
دوره 20، شماره 92 - شماره پیاپی 92
فصلنامه تابستان
شهریور 1400
صفحه 103-128

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 15 مرداد 1400
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 18 شهریور 1400
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 15 آذر 1400

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