نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
دکتری تخصصی اقتصاد بخش عمومی، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اداری، دانشگاه لرستان، خرمآباد، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
Using the statistical information of the top 100 arms-producing and military services companies in the world during 2002-2021, this study has estimated the linear and non-linear factors that explain the arms production in the world from the perspective of supply and demand. For this purpose, by using 40 companies (belonging to 10 countries of the world) from among the top 100 arms-producing companies in the form of a balanced panel model, the effect of arms demand including national defense spending, export and import of arms and gross domestic product (scale variable) on arms supply and production have been investigated using the Panel Smoot Transition Regression (PSTR) model and new panel cointegration estimators. The estimation results of the PSTR model, by considering the national defense expenditures as a transition variable in a two-regime model, show that in both regimes, national defense spending, arms exports, and GDP had a positive effect on the arms sales. The arms import variable also had an insignificant effect in the first regime and a positive effect on the arms sales in the second regime, which indicates that imported arms and domestic production are complementary. The results of linear estimation of the model using the Continuously Updated and Fully Modified (Cup-FM) and Continuously Updated and Bias-Corrected (CUP-BC) estimators also show that, on average, a one percent increase in national defense spending, arms exports, and gdp, respectively, increases arms sales in 40 selected company by 0.92, 0.11 and 1.12 percent.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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