شناسایی ابعاد و مؤلفه‌های تاب‌آوری زنجیره تأمین دفاعی: مطالعه بازیِ جنگ ایران–آمریکا در بستر خلیج‌فارس

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دکترای علوم دفاعی راهبردی‌(‍‍‍سیاست دفاعی)، دانشگاه دفاع ملی، تهران، ایران

2 دکتری علوم دفاعی راهبردی (دفاع ملی)، دانشگاه عالی دفاع ملی، تهران، ایران

3 کارشناسی ارشد رشته مدیریت کسب و کار، مجتمع مدیریت و مهندسی صنایع، دانشگاه صنعتی مالک اشتر، تهران،ایران

چکیده

تاب‌آوری زنجیره تأمین دفاعی در شرایط بحران و جنگ یکی از الزامات حیاتی برای پایداری عملیات نظامی است. هدف پژوهش حاضر شناسایی و اعتبارسنجی ابعاد و مؤلفه‌های تاب‌آوری زنجیره تأمین دفاعی جمهوری اسلامی ایران در سناریوی تقابل احتمالی با ایالات متحده آمریکا در بستر خلیج فارس می‌باشد. این پژوهش از نوع کاربردی–توسعه‌ای و به روش توصیفی–پیمایشی انجام شد. در مرحله کیفی با استفاده از فراترکیب هفت‌مرحله‌ای سندلوفسکی و باروسو(۲۰۰۶)، از میان ۳۰۰ مقاله اولیه، ۴۷ مقاله منتخب با معیار CASP تحلیل شدند و ۴۴ مؤلفه در نرم‌افزار MAXQDA استخراج گردید. در مرحله کمی، مؤلفه‌ها در قالب پرسشنامه نیمه‌ساختاریافته دلفی به ۷ خبره نظامی ارائه شد و با بهره‌گیری از شاخص لاوشه (CVR)، آلفای کرونباخ (87/0) و ضریب کندال (W=0/75, p<0/01) اعتبارسنجی شدند. نتایج نشان داد ابعاد «امنیت»، «افزونگی»، «پایداری»، «حمل‌ونقل»، «مدیریت»، «منابع انسانی» و «فناوری» به‌عنوان ابعاد اصلی تاب‌آوری زنجیره تأمین دفاعی تأیید شدند. همچنین خبرگان چند مؤلفه بومی جدید متناسب با شرایط ایران (مانند انبارهای مغروق و مسیرهای امن زیرسطحی) به مدل افزودند که موجب غنای بیشتر چارچوب پیشنهادی گردید. تبیین ابعاد و مؤلفه‌های نهایی می‌تواند به مدیران و سیاست‌گذاران کمک کند تا مدل‌های بومی تاب‌آوری زنجیره تأمین دفاعی طراحی و در سناریوهای احتمالی جنگی از آن بهره‌برداری نمایند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Dimensions and Components of Defense Supply Chain Resilience: A War-Game Study of the Iran–U.S. Scenario in the Persian Gulf

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hamidreza Rezaee 1
  • Morteza Porjafari 2
  • Ali Naeimi Khondabi 3
1 Ph.D. in Strategic Defense Studies (Defense Policy), Supreme National Defense University, Tehran, Iran
2 Ph.D. in Strategic Defense Studies (National Defense), Supreme National Defense University, Tehran, Iran
3 M.A. in Business Administration, Faculty of Management and Industrial Engineering, Malek Ashtar University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Supply chain resilience in defense is a vital requirement for sustaining military operations under crisis and war conditions. The aim of this study is to identify and validate the dimensions and components of resilience in the defense supply chain of the Islamic Republic of Iran in a potential conflict scenario with the United States in the Persian Gulf. This applied–developmental study was conducted using a descriptive–survey approach. In the qualitative phase, a meta-synthesis method based on the seven-step model of Sandelowski & Barroso (2006) was applied. Out of an initial 300 articles, 47 studies were selected using CASP criteria, and 44 components were extracted and coded with MAXQDA software. In the quantitative phase, these components were evaluated through a semi-structured Delphi questionnaire distributed among 7 military experts. Content validity was assessed using the Lawshe index (CVR), while reliability was confirmed by Cronbach’s alpha (0.87) and expert agreement through Kendall’s W (0.75, p < 0.01). The results revealed seven key dimensions of defense supply chain resilience: “security,” “redundancy,” “sustainability,” “transportation,” “management,” “human resources,” and “technology.” In addition, experts introduced several context-specific components (such as submerged warehouses and secure subsurface routes), enriching the proposed framework. The identified dimensions and validated components provide a localized model that can guide policymakers and managers in designing resilient defense supply chains, thereby improving preparedness for potential conflict scenarios.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Defense supply chain resilience
  • Wargaming
  • Meta-synthesis
  • Delphi
  • Persian Gulf

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 04 آبان 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 11 خرداد 1405

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